Egyptian scene a year after the fourth

First: the achievements of the coup 

We can say without reservation that Sisi has achieved a major victory over the past year, and was able to return to the scene before the scratch. 

Not only able to exclude from the president-elect, and wasted all the political and legal entitlements that followed the revolution, but also carried a wider campaign of arrests, and committed the worst mass killings in Egypt's modern history. And impose conditions of political, legal and constitutional strongly fait accompli. But most of all this, it is carried out after the revolution that united the anti-state security and bureaucratic institutions Dinatin and the judiciary, and the support of the back of a popular middle-class sector and not a few of the poor. 

It is not feasible to measure the strength of these popular accounts of the ballot box (ie, they are not necessarily "electoral majority"), because it is not there already an electoral fund. Equation returned to the pre-January: state security and bureaucratic institutions in the face of growing popular mass accumulates has a balance of anger. 

But there are differences; state security does not defend its political system as much as retaliate against the current social and political considered that insulted her and still represents the main threat to the continued influence and authority, that is the goal of repression is not pre-empt the opposition force to disable or limit the steps political, but revenge and destroy the structure of the movement especially at the level of material resources, and traditional outlets (social and advocacy), which existed from which the depth of the community over the previous three decades. 

But now the more bureaucratic institutions "rudeness" in alignment of the political system and the defense of interlocking ties with him. I realized that these devices any real political change represents a direct threat to its influence, so it has become more aggressive. Which justifies the unprecedented audacity of the behavior of the judicial authority, which was somewhat outside the circle of confrontation in the Mubarak era. However, the sense of danger that threatens its influence and interests paid to fight the face of open and exposed. 

The value of the Popular Bloc they confer on the current system lacked the Mubarak regime, and then can not cope with the counter-revolution as an entity boxed popularly easy to jump on it. 

There are indicators of great significance:

First: the achievements of the coup 

We can say without reservation that Sisi has achieved a major victory over the past year, and was able to return to the scene before the scratch. 

Not only able to exclude from the president-elect, and wasted all the political and legal entitlements that followed the revolution, but also carried a wider campaign of arrests, and committed the worst mass killings in Egypt's modern history. And impose conditions of political, legal and constitutional strongly fait accompli. But most of all this, it is carried out after the revolution that united the anti-state security and bureaucratic institutions Dinatin and the judiciary, and the support of the back of a popular middle-class sector and not a few of the poor. 

It is not feasible to measure the strength of these popular accounts of the ballot box (ie, they are not necessarily "electoral majority"), because it is not there already an electoral fund. Equation returned to the pre-January: state security and bureaucratic institutions in the face of growing popular mass accumulates has a balance of anger. 

But there are differences; state security does not defend its political system as much as retaliate against the current social and political considered that insulted her and still represents the main threat to the continued influence and authority, that is the goal of repression is not pre-empt the opposition force to disable or limit the steps political, but revenge and destroy the structure of the movement especially at the level of material resources, and traditional outlets (social and advocacy), which existed from which the depth of the community over the previous three decades. 

But now the more bureaucratic institutions "rudeness" in alignment of the political system and the defense of interlocking ties with him. I realized that these devices any real political change represents a direct threat to its influence, so it has become more aggressive. Which justifies the unprecedented audacity of the behavior of the judicial authority, which was somewhat outside the circle of confrontation in the Mubarak era. However, the sense of danger that threatens its influence and interests paid to fight the face of open and exposed. 

The value of the Popular Bloc they confer on the current system lacked the Mubarak regime, and then can not cope with the counter-revolution as an entity boxed popularly easy to jump on it. 

There are indicators of great significance:...

But these measures, which are expected to be just the first stage of the other steps will not affect the essence of the economic crisis in Egypt, and will not lead to any real changes affecting the income level of the citizen; or provide sufficient resources for the state in order to raise the efficiency of the apparatus of the service. Besides, these measures directly affect the poor who do not have a fair system of wages or health care or social security. 

Official figures show an increase in the budget deficit after the application of the new package of reforms to 288 billion Egyptian pounds, including a 12.6%, a slight improvement from the previous budget deficit, which exceeded the 14%. And arrived at the internal and external debt to about two billion pounds, at a time when the inflation rate reached 10.6%, which is pushing for the collapse of the high value of the local currency and its purchasing power in light of the growing rates of prices. 

This step remains fallow in the water; there is no meaning to any economic reform without direct engagement with deformities of the Egyptian economy and the public finances of the state. As long as the tax system is based on the base collection and lacking standards of justice and has large gaps to evade wide, and as long as the wage structure on his condition, will remain the enormous disparity between the state to achieve growth rates and between the citizen to feel that growth returns. 

The focus of fiscal policy for the state to solve the problems of the expenditure side, reducing it receives support from the poor, targeting high growth rates, is the neglect of the equitable distribution of the benefits of this growth, the right of the poor to health services, education and enjoyment of forms of social security differentiated. And will remain that of the causes that lead to the lack of growth translates into an actual improvement in the standard of living of the poor, and all this is nothing but a continuation of the policy of the Government of the business before the revolution that has accumulated public anger outbursts part in the January 28, 2011. 

For example, the percentage of the population who are languishing below the poverty line from 16.7% a year (1999-2000) to 21.6% a year (2008-2009) the same year that the percentage of growth was unprecedented close to 8%. ([3]) 

In addition to the economic aspects, Egypt is witnessing a state of societal tension could not be sustained. A heavy heart and unemployment and the high cost of slums and moral deformity demonstrated on numerous occasions; The parties seems destabilize security and marginalized economically and politically. Remarkably, the system in July 2013 to deal lightly strange from both levels: The logic of power is what is facing slum dwellers and street vendors, and the status quo is what is facing its aspirations of the poor, while the exposed parties in Sinai to an unprecedented campaign infringed on the norms and the sanctity of the blood. 

After a full year of a military campaign in the regions of Sinai, the back of Ansar al-Bayt al-Maqdis in Eid prayers, in a sermon broadcast on Internet regulation. Not what meditation daring calls on its members to assemble their weapons-laden SUV as far as calls meditation messages Eid sermon campaign pledge to the people of Sinai protection and revenge of what they have suffered and the sharing of suffering and recovery with them. Integrates this scene with the attacks of Western Sahara, to look accommodate questions about the state of the seriousness of the situation on the parties to an urgent and disturbing. 

Broadcast Ansar al-Bayt al-Maqdis film photographer shocking to process recruits killed in Sinai, and wrapped up the film in a promotional film about the process of coming Farafra! Limited organization, which began in the foundation to carry out operations against Israeli targets in the delta expansion after the coup, and now fills the vacuum Parties Bank. 

If we add to this file Nubia Crouching under the ashes, and marginalization level, and advances the state in dealing with the tribes of the north and the south and west, and the proliferation of arms and the rule of the logic of force, even among dealers, "Downtown" in Cairo itself, become the front of the threats may not be ready to explode now, but with ignoring the state and the instability of the situation become worse scenarios featured. 

May be useless security grip strength at the moment of the return of the trance community prestige of the state, but they will not succeed has gone ecstasy and actually seemed, at best, as is the period in which they portrayed as the worst, and the future is more uncertain. 

People want a lot of solutions to the problems of accumulated years is not long, and there is no sign to possess Sisi is provided in the near term.

2. External challenges 

Sisi still depends exclusively on its allies in the Gulf. The United States and the European Union have taken a decision to normalize relations with the new regime after the presidential election. But do not doubt that the continued security approach and repressive practices, with the continuation of the state to demonstrate in the street and the absence of any signs of near political stability, put an end to the readiness of the West to develop its partnership with the existing system, which is expected of them more than just "encourage" political. (It is interesting, for example, that after more than a year did not take steps, saying Western countries in the field of economic support, even through the IMF. Still only support the Gulf, which prevents the collapse of Sisi). 

Often there will still be pressure on a European and US-Sisi to force him to change the general line of his domestic policies, and to reach a political settlement to end the state of tension. It is not unlikely to be a case of apathy, which coincides with the maneuver Sisi developed a level of Egyptian-Russian relations, a sign stuck to each position: Sisi does not want to change his position, and the West worry about the continuation of internal confrontation. Note that relations with the Pentagon, the Army did not vibrating throughout the crisis. 

Gulf, is not expected to fall in any case, Saudi Arabia and the UAE for their stance Booster / partner for Cisse. With delivery to Saudi Arabia went priorities and resources currently to Iraq, and to a lesser extent to Yemen, where developments directly affecting the internal security. 

Two countries can provide the needs of Egypt's oil, (recently announced the approval of the UAE in principle to provide petroleum products for the next year at a cost of 8.7 billion dollars each in the form of grants rather welcomes and the rest is paid facilities, a little more than half of Egypt's needs annual amount of about 15.6 billion dollars) ; addition to investments and deposits maintain a cash reserve at safe levels. But the financing of state expenditures or to cover its budget deficit is not expected in light of the needs of large Egyptian. It seems that the Conference of the Friends of Egypt, or the donors' conference, became the aim is to provide support to ease the burden on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. (There are unprecedented numbers, talking about borrowing the Egyptian state, according to the Ministry of Finance, in fiscal year 2013 to 2014.786 billion pounds in the form of bonds and treasury bills.) 

Question about the "feasibility" There is no doubt become less in Saudi Arabia with the length of the standoff and the high cost, especially with the conditions of the Kingdom of the Interior, which may be affected by this regional confrontation with his stream along the historic Saudi. Wrangled Arabia internal disagreements about governance and the future, and there is a situation of tension community does not find an outlet until now only through social networks, and are adopting next to the demands of political and human rights, the demands of living related to housing, electricity bills, social security, and the decline of basic services (especially water) in some areas, and high unemployment rates, and the status of women ... etc.. The problems are all encampment donations and initiatives ownership continuously since March 2011. 

The greatest threat comes from Iraq and Syria. Obsession transition to tensions within the Kingdom of accelerated rates of the issues that govern the Specialized Criminal Court, (a special court to terrorism), sympathizing with terrorist organizations or invitation to travel to Syria or Iraq .... etc.. 

Regional environment in general do not serve Sisi; growing state of turmoil and the absence of stability and dominance of uncertainty and increase the influence of Islamist armed groups in the east and west, casts a negative on Egypt, which must cope with external threats Front internal stable and quiet. The pressures allies to Egypt in order to play a role in Libya and Iraq probably puts him in front of Options can not afford repercussions. It seems headstrong Sisi Without Borders; Valtort Egyptian in Libya in response to the UAE, it is not unlikely to develop into an Egyptian involvement in Iraq in response to Saudi Arabia. 

Finally, the damaged image Sisi much as a result of the Egyptian position on the war in Gaza, and Ahrjh unexpected political position adopted by the Palestinian factions, which was defiant (Abu Mazen himself has not been able to adopt a political stance different), which was forced in the end to a call by Hamas and other factions to Cairo, and impose logic on the talks would often minimal demands of Hamas, which for him is higher than forecast at the beginning of the military operation. 

On the other hand remains the position of each of Qatar and Turkey together, do not expect change in the near term; access Erdogan and Turkish presidency bypassed conspiracy regional maintain its position on the situation in Egypt. While reconciliation Gulf standstill Altassaaad or compatibility between the minimum to avoid direct confrontation and keep each position of Egypt. 

Outcome of scenes inner and outer dominated the rhetoric Sisi Day launch of the channel, where Send message is the first of its kind, the effect (which differs brighter than the right to live among us embracing what he wants of ideas as long as it does not harm the country "Mitrohac Tola in the booth Kahraba" - must to be the heart of one man, and I do not glow different problem, Hnaseebhm Then we Haarafoa true). 

Third: Options Alliance in the next phase 

Coalition exposed to ongoing criticism of the view that does nothing but pretend. While that does not seem to influence the political steps on the overall Shahad, and is able to change the balance of power imposed by the army. 

Demonstrations and steadfastness in the street, he became accomplished only constant since; was unable Alliance Investment case of rejection faced by the coup externally in some countries in Africa and Latin America, and then are these countries closer to deal with it the new reality before the international community. The coalition did not achieve gains in the course of prosecutions. 

Out political initiatives are confused whether in Brussels or in Istanbul, especially since the Council, which was announced in Istanbul is a retreat from the political point, because it is a repeat of the same scene, what practically means the recognition of the failure of Brussels and then enter into a spiral of entities that do not achieve anything. It also did not provide a new picture avoid criticism of the Council's first, but on the contrary came less versatile than its predecessor, and was absent symbols of important political, rejecting the coup, gave a negative picture of the extent of understanding and coordination between the components of the coalition Home, a picture confirmed by the decision of the centrist party to withdraw of the coalition. 

From the political point represents the withdrawal of the middle, and perhaps others not really, retreat must work to contain it, and not dealing with logic (km supporter them in the street) because of political influence here, qualitative, and the value of political alliance mainly in its ability to attract spectrum variety represents the nucleus to crystallize alternative politician of the current system. A task that will not be realized Brotherhood and Islamic parties of the extreme right (Islamic group, Islamic Jihad and originality and the Salafist Front) and require more openness to the parties or the liberal and leftist groups. 

Until the moment the coalition clings to his speech without political retreat or maneuver. A year after the massacre of the fourth, and with internal and external changes need broad revolutionary movement strongly to re-evaluate the situation, and review basic alternatives available: Alastmrar- stop - Altassaaad - change the overall strategy of mobility.

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